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What’s everyone want with Macy’s these days?

Photo by Vladan Raznatovic on Unsplash

Apparently, consumers aren’t the only ones looking for deals this holiday season

So, someone — in this case the decision-makers at Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management — want to buy Macy’s for $5.8 billion.

Market participants applauded the news as shares of the slumping retailer surged about 15% during the early stages of Monday’s trading session.

Macy’s, which was stuck in a bit of a rut — down 17% since the start of the year — finally has something to cheer about, too. A double-digit jump is, well, rare for the retail giant, which was hoping for strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales to boost the share price heading into the new year.

Turns out, the biggest sale of them all isn’t something Macy’s is handing out to consumers this holiday season, it’s the buyout terms Arkhouse and Brigade Capital threw into Macy’s’ figurative lap.

The offer values the retailer at $21 per share and, well, let’s just say analysts weren’t as impressed as the market, downgrading the stock just one day later. The terms seem steep (to say the least) and, according to those who pontificate on this sort of thing, a buyout at the reported terms, particularly in this environment, is unlikely at best.

"Others have gone down this path before (Starboard, Hudson's Bay), we are unsure how advanced talks are (Macy’s has not commented) and in this interest rate environment and with the secular challenges Macy’s faces, it may be difficult to finance. Consider us skeptical that anything will materialize."

That’s what Citi analyst Paul Lejuez, who cut his rating to sell from neutral, wrote in a note on Tuesday … and he’s not the only one thinking along those lines.

Interestingly enough, Arkhouse and Brigade Capital aren’t the only ones crafting takeover bids, either, as Sycamore Partners could reportedly join any potential bidding wars down the road.

The last time Macy’s (M) was trading at or near its current level was back in March, when the company announced solid holiday results good enough to send the shares more than 11% higher.

Macy’s cut it’s outlook in June and, while the move did little to help or hurt the share price, shares sank better than 14% after the company made comments about a cautious consumer being pickier about what they spend and don’t spend their hard-earned money on.

Unboxing Macy’s value

Whether or not any of the recent takeover chatter will actually materialize into a sale is still very much up in the air. The question market participants have now is what’s up with the interest all of a sudden? Macy’s hasn’t dramatically changed its business model so, uh, what’s the deal?

At $21 a share, it wouldn’t exactly be a steal.

Macy’s has been on a decent run this holiday season, erasing almost all of the year’s losses.

On top of that, Inflation, still hot from historical standards, isn’t making things easy on the consumer and retail is a mess thanks to things like increased online competition and finding and retaining employees. Those headaches are going to get worse in the coming months and, in Macy’s case — as one of the biggest retailers in the world — both have the potential to turn into full-blown migraines.

Regardless of sales, sentiment shifts or changes to consumer behavior, though, one thing Macy’s has a ton of is real estate.

That, the structures and space, is where the value’s at.

The company reportedly owns more than 58% of its 722 store locations. Along those lines, analysts peg the value of Macy’s real estate alone at somewhere between $5 billion and $7 billion. Its flagship Herald Square location in New York, worth around $1 billion all by itself, may be the most valuable of the bunch.

The crown jewel of Macy’s real estate empire

Anyone wondering why anyone would want Macy’s hasn’t been paying attention to real estate/rent prices, which have only gone up with seemingly everything else from socks to soda recently.

The Herald Square building, which was completed all the way back in 1902, is old. It’s also big, taking up around 2.5 million square feet of prime retail space in New York City. Its more than 1 million square feet of retail space make it the largest department store in the United States and among the largest in the world.

Unlike what you’ll find on a Macy’s clearance rack, that’s some serious value.

Herald Square is massive, it’s iconic and it’s something no other retailer has … and it provides the only clues to why anyone — even someone with a ridiculous amount of money to spend — would want to take on the struggling retailer as an investment.

Could Macy’s be headed toward a similar fate as Bed, Bath & Beyond?

A retailer not all that unlike Macy’s is going through a bit of a relaunch as Bed, Bath & Beyond recently flipped to an app-only experience. Overstock.com bought the bankrupt retailer, which was forced to close all 360 of its BB&B stores and 120 of its buybuy BABYs locations, and relaunched it online.

The 20% coupons are still around … the stores aren’t.

Instead, they’re being filled with Burlington, Michael’s and other discount retailers. Trampoline parks, pickleball courts and bowling alleys are popping up inside a few as well … you know, in an effort to keep pace with consumer behavior. I’m not sure if Overstock.com now owns any of those locations or if Bed, Bath & Beyond simply rented them prior to the bankruptcy. I do know Macy’s owns more than half of its physical locations, though, meaning a potential new owner would be able to rent out the retail locations to other businesses should they so choose.

Is that what Sycamore, Arkhouse and Brigade Capital are thinking? I’m guessing yes … and all the recent takeover chatter can only mean one thing: Macy’s, as we know and love it, with the big physical footprint and in-store Santa, won’t be around much longer. People will always shop, sure, but they’re increasingly opting to do it in virtual stores instead of physical ones.

In other words, buy Amazon stock, not Macy’s.


Disclaimer: I’m a market participant, not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice.